Takeaways from Livewire Live 2018
Yesterday the Sharesight team dropped in at Livewire Live, hosted by Bell Direct and ASX. Livewire Live is now in its fourth year, the panelists were top notch and the auditorium packed. If you’re an Australian investor, have exposure to Australia, or are curious to see the world from an Australian investor’s standpoint, Livewire Live is a great event to put on your calendar.
The year’s panel discussions focused on:
- MACROECONOMICS — “The big changes in global macro right now”
- STRATEGY — “Time to think beyond the index in Australian equities”
- EQUITIES — “The smart money in global equities”
And the lineup was packed with well-known fund managers:
- Charlie Aitken, Chief Investment Officer, Aitken Investment Management
- Charlie Jamieson, Executive Director, Jamieson Coote Bonds
- Vimal Gor, Head of Income and Fixed Interest, Pendal Group
- Peter Cooper, Chief Investment Officer, Cooper Investors
- Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer, PM Capital
- Nick Griffin, Chief Investment Officer, Munro Partners
- Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
- Catherine Allfrey, Principal & Portfolio Manager, Wavestone Capital
- Anthony Aboud, Portfolio Manager, Perpetual
- Ben Griffiths, Portfolio Manager, Eley Griffiths Group
- Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, Fidelity International
- Adrian Warner, Chief Investment Officer, Avenir Capital
- Simon Shields, Portfolio Manager, Monash Investors
- Steve Johnson, Chief Investment Officer, Forager Funds
- Chris Stott, Chief Investment Officer, Wilson Asset Management
- Chris Bedingfield, Portfolio Manager, Quay Global Investors
Overall the outlook presented was more bearish than in previous years, with the exception of China which was seen by many as the exception. A recap on our blog won’t do justice to the panel discussions and audience Q&A, so head over to the Livewire site as they’ve written up two standout presentations from the event.
Here are some key takeaways that caught my attention:
It’s the most exciting time in human history to be an investor.
The best opportunities exist today where technology and population growth collide.
Use Australian equities for income, and global equities for growth.
Domino’s Pizza is not a tech stock.
The future lies directly to our north - Asia is the best investment theme to invest in over the coming years.
We’ve had nearly 10 years of artificial liquidity and it’s painted over the cracks.
We’ve already had 5 observable crises this year and it’s only June.
Liquidity is something that investors need to think about – because it can evaporate very quickly.
Is Trump going to be concerned that the rest of the world is slowing but the USA is growing? Probably not.
We don’t expect any rate moves until 2020 – when it’s just as likely to be a cut as a hike.
The one thing we do not need is a housing correction – were house prices to start accelerating on the down side (and the RBA not to do anything) we could have the mother of all recessions.
Markets have done well and the risk reward has changed – whatever your tolerance level was, it should be reduced.
Going forward, expect lower returns out of long-term index funds – whether we are going up or down or sideways as liquidity comes out of the system.
Australia peaked in 2015. 98% of the opportunities are around the rest of the world – being offshore is going to be a better risk reward for a very long time.
What has been the most crowded asset class over the last 20 years is ETFs – the next crisis could be the liquidity issues from ETFs.
Gold: you can’t eat it, it doesn’t pay dividends, but you should have some sympathy for it as a store of value.
In a place like China you cannot ignore policy direction.
There’s nothing like a long strong bull market to spike interest in passive investing.
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