2017 Australian investor survey results
In our 2017 stock picking competition survey we posed a series of questions to gauge Australian and Kiwi investor sentiment for the 2017 calendar year. Let’s find out how accurate those predictions proved to be.
The majority got it right - it finished at $0.78.
The RBA kept the official cash rate on hold at the historically low setting of 1.5% throughout 2017.
When it came to home loan mortgage rates in Australia in 2017, many lenders were forced to increase interest rates due to APRA’s strengthened macroprudential controls -- in particular rates charged to investors with interest-only loans, who saw an increase of 0.53% on average in the year to November before some late discounting by some banks at the end of the year.
Survey respondents were largely right, or not far off, with the majority expecting a neutral through bullish run in 2017. The ASX200 finished up 7.1% in 2017.
Taking data from two ASX index-tracking ETFs:
- ASX.SFY - tracking the S&P ASX 50 ‘large cap’ index
- ISO.ASX - tracking the ASX XSO ‘small cap’ index (comprised of companies not in the ASX100 that are in the ASX 300 index)
The performance for each in 2017?
- Large caps saw a 1.28% loss
- Small caps saw a 16.63% gain
Did you know you can use any ETF Sharesight tracks as a benchmark for your portfolio?
Not only did Fairfax (ASX.FXJ) announce plans to spin out the Domain real estate advertising business, they completed the Fairfax-Domain split/demerger in November - creating Domain Holdings Australia (ASX.DHG) in the process.
If you hold Fairfax shares affected by this corporate action, learn how to handle the Fairfax and Domain demerger in Sharesight.
The three China facing stocks in the question, A2Milk (ASX.A2M), Bellamy’s Australia (ASX.BAL) and Blackmores Limited (ASX.BKL) all significantly outperformed the market in 2017.
Australia’s major banks and insurers make up a significant percentage of the ASX200 by value. Using an ETF that tracks the ASX 200 financial sector (ASX.QFN) we can benchmark the performance of that sector against the broader index.
When looking at capital gains alone the ASX 200 returned 7.05% (using iShares IOZ.ASX ETF as the benchmark), whereas financial stocks alone fell 0.58%.
When taking into account dividends (where financial shares saw a higher percentage return) in addition to the capital gain we see:
- ASX 200 -- 12.45% total return
- ASX.QFN (finance index) -- 5.95% total return
We saw slightly more bears than bulls on Australian property in 2017. Despite a significant cooling of the rapid growth in property prices of previous years, Australia prices across Australia’s largest 5 capital cities increased by 4.29% according to data to Corelogic.
Overall more respondents correctly predicted the outcomes for 2017 for our survey questions, a solid case for the ‘wisdom of the crowd’!
- 2017 stock picking competition
- 2017 stock picking competition - survey results
- 2017 stock picking competition - February update
- 2017 stock picking competition - April update
- 2017 stock picking competition - July update
- 2017 stock picking competition - October update
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