2017 Australian investor survey results

by David Olsen, Content Manager, Sharesight

In our 2017 stock picking competition survey we posed a series of questions to gauge Australian and Kiwi investor sentiment for the 2017 calendar year. Let’s find out how accurate those predictions proved to be.

Here are the results of our 2017 Australian investor survey

Where will the Aussie Dollar finish in 2017?

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The majority got it right - it finished at $0.78.

The next interest rate move from the RBA will be?

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The RBA kept the official cash rate on hold at the historically low setting of 1.5% throughout 2017.

When it came to home loan mortgage rates in Australia in 2017, many lenders were forced to increase interest rates due to APRA’s strengthened macroprudential controls – in particular rates charged to investors with interest-only loans, who saw an increase of 0.53% on average in the year to November before some late discounting by some banks at the end of the year.

What is your view on the outlook for Australian equities in 2017?

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Survey respondents were largely right, or not far off, with the majority expecting a neutral through bullish run in 2017. The ASX200 finished up 7.1% in 2017.

Large Caps vs. Small Caps - which part of the market will outperform in 2017?

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Taking data from two ASX index-tracking ETFs:

  1. ASX.SFY - tracking the S&P ASX 50 ‘large cap’ index
  2. ISO.ASX - tracking the ASX XSO ‘small cap’ index (comprised of companies not in the ASX100 that are in the ASX 300 index)

The performance for each in 2017?

  1. Large caps saw a 1.28% loss
  2. Small caps saw a 16.63% gain
Did you know you can use any ETF Sharesight tracks as a benchmark for your portfolio?

Fairfax announces plans to spin out Domain via an IPO?

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Not only did Fairfax (ASX.FXJ) announce plans to spin out the Domain real estate advertising business, they completed the Fairfax-Domain split/demerger in November - creating Domain Holdings Australia (ASX.DHG) in the process.

If you hold Fairfax shares affected by this corporate action, learn how to handle the Fairfax and Domain demerger in Sharesight.

Will China facing stocks (e.g. BKL, BAL, A2M) get a second wind and rally in 2017?

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The three China facing stocks in the question, A2Milk (ASX.A2M), Bellamy’s Australia (ASX.BAL) and Blackmores Limited (ASX.BKL) all significantly outperformed the market in 2017.

China Facing Stocks

Major banks and insurers outperform the ASX200 in 2017?

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Australia’s major banks and insurers make up a significant percentage of the ASX200 by value. Using an ETF that tracks the ASX 200 financial sector (ASX.QFN) we can benchmark the performance of that sector against the broader index.

When looking at capital gains alone the ASX 200 returned 7.05% (using iShares IOZ.ASX ETF as the benchmark), whereas financial stocks alone fell 0.58%.

When taking into account dividends (where financial shares saw a higher percentage return) in addition to the capital gain we see:

  • ASX 200 – 12.45% total return
  • ASX.QFN (finance index) – 5.95% total return

Finance Sector ASX performance 2017

Australian property (finally) corrects – average capital city house prices down by 5%?

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We saw slightly more bears than bulls on Australian property in 2017. Despite a significant cooling of the rapid growth in property prices of previous years, Australia prices across Australia’s largest 5 capital cities increased by 4.29% according to data to Corelogic.

How did respondents fare in 2017?

Overall more respondents correctly predicted the outcomes for 2017 for our survey questions, a solid case for the ‘wisdom of the crowd’!

Tell us about your predictions for financial markets in 2018 in the Sharesight community forum or tweet @Sharesight with your top tips and predictions for the next year – we’d love to hear them.

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